Well, one of them has to lose

Full disclosure: I came out of this game more irked by the failures of the Cal team than impressed with the successes of Stanford... so apologies in advance if the tone seems more negative than warranted.

Stanford 79, Cal 69

It's not really a coincidence that 2 of Stanford's 3 best offensive performances in conference play (120+ offensive efficiency rating) have come against the Bears. This team cannot play defense. At all. Particularly on the perimeter. It's inexplicable. The team's defense has actually gotten worse from last year, when it was without Hardin, without Jordan Wilkes, and without Knezevic.

A lot of it (not the perimeter problems, though-- I'm not sure how to put it other than that Jerome Randle is really, really short) seems to have to do with DeVon Hardin, who's gone from one of the better defenders in the conference to a near non-factor. He was completely outplayed by Brook Lopez last night, even though Brook did not have a great game overall.

I'm not sure what's wrong with Hardin, but something is. He seems disinterested, almost apathetic. He fouled out with 5 points and 5 rebounds and just sort of shrugged his shoulders.
I think he may be too nice for his own good, which is an odd thing to say. He doesn't seem to have that "I'm better than you are" vibe that, say, Brook Lopez does... and so he ISN'T better, even compared to guys he ought to be better than. The game ends, Cal loses, and he's joking around with guys on the other team. The elite guys don't do that-- when they lose games, they try to kick holes in the locker room walls.

He seems like a nice man, talented, a hard worker, and quite intelligent. But if I'm an NBA scout, I look at him and see a lack of killer instinct. To be an elite pro athlete, you have to be profoundly conceited, almost delusional. You have to think you're better than guys even when you clearly aren't. Hardin is smart enough to know he isn't, and nice enough not to lie and pretend he is. And that may prove his undoing as a pro prospect.

In any event, Cal's NCAA tournament chances seem close to finished. The team will have to spring at least two upsets in the next three tough games (and hold serve against Washington) to go into the Pac-10 tournament 9-9, which seems to be the minimum plausible record-- although a run to the finals might get it done if the team was 8-10 (3 wins and 1 loss in the tournament would make the Bears 11-11 overall).

In Stanford news, we had an Anthony Goods sighting (20 points), which is something the team is going to need a lot more of. He's been plagued with various maladies this year and his shooting has been off. If he can find the stroke, there's no limit to how good this team could be.

Robin Lopez's offensive game also continues to improve, as he hit a couple of very nice shots at key points in the game. He may not get to where Brook is if he stays another year (heck, he may not ever get there), but it's not out of the question that he could climb into the lottery picks in the 2008 draft.

Up next are the Washington schools. Stanford really needs to take care of Washington for seeding purposes. With Siena bouncing around the 90s in the RPI, Stanford could enter the tournament without an RPI sub-100 loss, which is nice-- but Washington is 120th in the RPI. It also goes almost without saying that losing to Washington would knock them out of realistic hopes at the conference crown. Meanwhile, Cal faces an utter must-win in Washington State.

I'll continue to update the Pac-10 bubble situation for the next week or two, as well.