Pac-10 Bubble Trouble

In lieu of the usual Friday post (because the Bay schools had the night off yesterday), I figured it might be time for a little Pac-10 Bubble Watching.

So let's look at the teams in order of the current standings, and see how they stack up. (Note: Magic #, the number of games a team needs to win to squeeze into the NCAA field, EXCLUDES opening-round tournament wins. Thumping Oregon State in LA will not impress anybody.)

UCLA: 26-3, 14-2
Remaining games: Stanford, Cal
Status: Lock
Seed floor: 4

UCLA is coming pretty close to locking up a protected seed in the tournament; 1 win in the remaining 3 games should obtain them a #2 seed (and of course a #1 is still there to be won if the team is a clear winner in the conference). An extended losing streak is not really an issue at this point.

Stanford: 24-4, 13-3
Remaining games: @ UCLA, @ USC
Status: Lock
Seed floor: 4

See above. At this point the team can't do worse than second in conference with one hypothetical bad loss in the conference tourney. A #1 seed isn't off the table if Stanford wins out. Not that it's a likely scenario, but what the hey.

Odd note: Stanford's seed floor is as high as UCLA's, even though their realistic (read: not assuming a road win at Pauley) seed ceiling is probably at the 2 line. Why? Because their remaining opponents are better, and losses to them will be less damaging.

WSU: 21-7, 10-7
Remaining games: Washington
Status: Favorable
Magic #: 1
Chance of Achieving: 85%

Soft nonconference (not their fault-- who wants to travel to Pullman in winter?) means this team will probably need 11 wins to feel totally safe. A season sweep of USC and ASU does guarantee the Cougars the tiebreaker over the Trojans if needed for the tournament, but that could be a bad thing as it might lead to a third matchup with arch-nemesis Arizona. The Cougars would be well advised to put Washington away. Given the shambles the bubble finds itself in, though, one win may not even be necessary.

USC: 18-10, 9-7
Remaining games: Cal, Stanford
Status: Favorable
Magic #: 1
Chance of Achieving: 83%

I just can't see this team getting dropped with 9 wins. The SOS is impeccable, the team has the win over UCLA, and they have OJMAYOZOMGZORZ!!!!!1!1! on the roster. Hackett was back and played decently against Arizona, making it even less likely that they'll be docked for games where he didn't play. The team laid an egg against ASU, so they should probably win a game against the Bay Area to feel safe.

ASU: 18-9, 8-8
Remaining games: @ Oregon, @ OSU
Status: Bubblicious
Magic #: 2
Chance of Achieving: 50%

The RPI and SOS hate this team. Inevitably, that will cause Jay Bilas to love them, but he's not on the Committee. (I like Bilas a lot, but he does have a bit of a bee in his bonnet about the RPI.)

The win over USC was the first needed win in what seems like a best-of-three for a bid; the Devils now need to pick up a road win at Oregon or a tournament win over (probably) USC, plus handle Oregon State.

Cal: 15-12, 6-10
Remaining games: @ USC, @ UCLA
Status: Dead

While Cal might be technically alive for a bid with 5 straight wins to the conference tournament final, that's sufficiently unlikely that I think Cal's tournament chances can be officially declared dead.

Arizona: 17-12, 7-9
Remaining games: @ OSU, @ Oregon
Status: Sweating
Magic #: 2
Chance of Achieving: 60%

The apocalypse scenario of a home sweep by the L.A. schools strikes. I still think 9-9 or 8-10 with a win in the conference quarters gets it done, especially in light of the overall weakness of the bubble. For obvious reasons, the OSU game is now an absolute must-win.

Oregon: 16-12, 7-9
Remaining games: ASU, Arizona
Status: Sweating
Magic #: 2 (and that's iffy)
Chance of Achieving: 45%

Honestly, I don't know if 9-9 and a first-round Pac-10 tournament loss would get the job done here. Beating UCLA would really help if it was one of those three wins. Otherwise I suspect it will depend on what the final Pac-10 pecking order looks like. If Oregon looks like the seventh best team with this resume, I think they will end up one of the last teams out.

Washington: 16-14, 7-10
Remaining games: @ WSU
Status: Dead

Washington does the conference no favors by eliminating both itself and Cal on the two legs of the Bay Area road trip.

Oregon State: Who cares?
Remaining games: Arizona, ASU
Status: You gotta be kidding me

Oregon State continues to play "lame Beaver" for the conference. (Get it? I can't say "lame Duck" because Oregon is the Ducks... oh, forget it.) Good thing, too, because neither tonight's victor Oregon nor either Arizona school can absorb a loss and have its bid chances survive, and the same will likely be true of the #7 team in the conference tournament.

It's going to be very hard for the conference to get 7 teams in. This is a shame, because it really is an awesome league. There just aren't enough wins to go around, particularly with Washington suddenly snarfing a couple of wins from putative Tourney squads. Right now, it looks like the top 6 in the league are UCLA, Stanford, WSU, USC, Arizona and the winner of the critical ASU/Oregon game-- and it also looks like that's going to be it for the conference. Of course, things can (and will) change rapidly from here on out. I'll post another update during the run-up to the Pac-10 tournament.