I would love to say something interesting here, but that would require having something interesting to say.
Stanford 55, Fresno State 48
I will say this about this game-- Stanford's defense was stifling. Fresno State netted only .83 points per shot, which is abysmal. Worse yet, Fresno turned the ball over 18 times, with only 6 assists. Most of the baskets they did manage were off of Kevin Bell penetrating into the lane, and even he was rather ineffectual, managing a mere 7 for 18 with 2 free throws. Like Texas Tech, Fresno was reduced to ineffectual lunges and runners in a desperate attempt to generate some offense.
That being said, Stanford:
a. turned the ball over 14 times themselves,
b. got all of three points from the bench, all of them on a single Taj Finger shot (weird in and of itself-- since when does he shoot threes?)
c. got outrebounded by a far smaller team, and
d. punctuated the game with such black-comedic highlights as Fred Washington and Brook Lopez attempting threes and Lawrence Hill shooting 2 for 12. He's officially in a slump at this point, as he whiffed on several wide-open threes that he normally buries.
There was basically one offensive highlight in this game, and it was Anthony Goods peeling off a screen and lunging to the hoop for a perfect slam dunk-- around a help defender. Very nice, but it hardly triggered a run-- Fresno promptly inbounded and hit a 3-pointer, which last time I checked is worth more points than a dunk.
In other news, Cal football's nightmarish season continues its denouement, with several players benched for at least the start of tomorrow's Armed Forces Bowl. Perhaps mercifully, I will be spared the sight of the game by work, as one of the worst football seasons (and sports years, period) in local history finally sputters to its gloomy conclusion. Let's hope for a happier 2008.
Note: the above was all written several days ago, but has been sitting on my computer since then. This is because I am an idiot who forgets about these things.
Might as well go straight on to the keys for Stanford to pull the upset in tonight's game:
1. Defense: The overriding priority is restraining UCLA's offense. They are not a super-powered offensive force. Most of the scoring comes from the guards-- Westbrook, Collison and Shipp. If Stanford can swat away their attempts at penetration and cling close enough to stop them from shooting 3s, I think UCLA will have trouble winning. Target: Less than one point per shot.
2. Lawrence Hill: Guy's been in a slump lately. The Cardinal desperately needs him to break out of it. He's going to have open looks from 3 and needs to knock them down. Target: 12 points and 6 rebounds.
3. Turnovers: We know there's going to be a bunch of them for Stanford. UCLA plays aggressive, ball-hawking, borderline illegal defense. The Cardinal have to limit the number of turnovers, particularly steals (which are much more damaging than other turnovers because they often lead to easy baskets on run-outs). Otherwise they simply won't be able to match UCLA in possessions. Target: 12 turnovers, 4 steals.
4. Non-Lopez/Goods scoring: Someone else is going to need to step up and score, whether it be Fred Washington with penetration or Drew Shiller (currently sitting at a ludicrous 1.9 points per shot-- he needs to take more of them) bombing from the outside. UCLA's own stodgy white jump-shooter, Michael Roll, is doubtful for the game with an injury, so the Cardinal definitely have an edge here. Target: At least one player besides Brook, Goods and Hill with 10 points.
We shall see. It's awfully tough to predict anyone to beat UCLA at this point, but I think Stanford is certainly at least capable of pulling it off.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Running rapidly out of "Brook" jokes
At the rate we're going, I'm going to have to start re-using them by mid-January. Could be a long season for anyone who actually cares about quality writing.
Then again, if that's you, why are you reading this in the first place?
Stanford 62, Texas Tech 61
Ladies and gentlemen, your consensus Pac-10 Player of the Week.
Tight-fought battle down to the wire. The single overriding factor in this game-- particularly in the second half-- was that Stanford had a way to generate easy points-- throw the ball in to Brook Lopez-- and Texas Tech had none. Trent Johnson put in a zone in the second half which completely stuffed Tech's offense. And again, Brook was the key to that-- because despite being almost 7 feet, he's agile enough to guard one of the corners of the zone very well. Meanwhile Robin Lopez was prowling the lane, freed by the zone look to come over the top of any guard penetration and simply swat the ball away. It did result in Tech getting a couple of weak offensive boards-- and several extremely long possessions, as Tech kept running the shot clock way down trying to find an open shot; at one point the ball was in Stanford's end for well over a minute straight-- but the tradeoff was more than worth it.
Offensively, this was really a forgettable performance by the Farm Team. Until Mitch Johnson hit on a wide-open 3 midway through the second half, the team didn't have a long-range basket. Anthony Goods pump-faked on what looked (to my amateur eye) to have been a couple of open looks from the corners, and generally settled for midrange jumpers instead. Lawrence Hill had what can only be described as an off game. At the end of the game, he wasn't even on the floor, as Taj Finger took over the interior with Fred Washington, Goods and Johnson on the perimeter.
The inclusion of Washington in the above list is of some note. Washington actually had minor surgery a few weeks back, but managed through the combination of a light schedule and a pretty quick recovery to miss only one game-- and apparently he could have played in that one, too, but was held out for precautionary reasons.
Washington seems like he's about 80 years old at this point, but he's actually only in his 5th season. He's the last remaining Cardinal who actually played for Mike Montgomery (although Taj Finger and Peter Prowitt were recruited by him), having gotten a medical hardship waiver for the '05-06 season. I'm pretty sure he's in grad school at this point, but it's nice to see him continue to help out the team. Texas Tech really didn't respect him enough in this game, and it burned them. A couple of times they had Martin Zeno, theoretically his mark, release him and play a one-man zone in the middle of the floor to help out against the Lopezes. This didn't work out well. Stanford took advantage of Zeno's paradox (heh) with 3 chip-in baskets from Washington on offensive rebounds in the second half-- rebounds obtained because nobody was bothering to block Washington out.
Bad break for Cal, as they lose at the last second to Utah, a game they really could have used come tournament time.
Stanford has another light week upcoming, with the only remaining non-conference fixture against Fresno State. Cal hosts the Golden Bear Invitational, which I may actually be attending, and plays Long Beach State and then either Bucknell or North Dakota State. The Bears really need those for the W column. I think it's going to take 19 wins to get Cal into the Tourney, and if they lose one of those they may need a winning record in conference play to advance.
Also, some props to the Stanford women's team, which picked up a huge home win against Tennessee, snapping an 11-game losing streak to the Vols. I have to say, it sure would be nice if all the good men's teams actually played each other the way the good women's teams do. One can but dream, I suppose.
Then again, if that's you, why are you reading this in the first place?
Stanford 62, Texas Tech 61
Ladies and gentlemen, your consensus Pac-10 Player of the Week.
Tight-fought battle down to the wire. The single overriding factor in this game-- particularly in the second half-- was that Stanford had a way to generate easy points-- throw the ball in to Brook Lopez-- and Texas Tech had none. Trent Johnson put in a zone in the second half which completely stuffed Tech's offense. And again, Brook was the key to that-- because despite being almost 7 feet, he's agile enough to guard one of the corners of the zone very well. Meanwhile Robin Lopez was prowling the lane, freed by the zone look to come over the top of any guard penetration and simply swat the ball away. It did result in Tech getting a couple of weak offensive boards-- and several extremely long possessions, as Tech kept running the shot clock way down trying to find an open shot; at one point the ball was in Stanford's end for well over a minute straight-- but the tradeoff was more than worth it.
Offensively, this was really a forgettable performance by the Farm Team. Until Mitch Johnson hit on a wide-open 3 midway through the second half, the team didn't have a long-range basket. Anthony Goods pump-faked on what looked (to my amateur eye) to have been a couple of open looks from the corners, and generally settled for midrange jumpers instead. Lawrence Hill had what can only be described as an off game. At the end of the game, he wasn't even on the floor, as Taj Finger took over the interior with Fred Washington, Goods and Johnson on the perimeter.
The inclusion of Washington in the above list is of some note. Washington actually had minor surgery a few weeks back, but managed through the combination of a light schedule and a pretty quick recovery to miss only one game-- and apparently he could have played in that one, too, but was held out for precautionary reasons.
Washington seems like he's about 80 years old at this point, but he's actually only in his 5th season. He's the last remaining Cardinal who actually played for Mike Montgomery (although Taj Finger and Peter Prowitt were recruited by him), having gotten a medical hardship waiver for the '05-06 season. I'm pretty sure he's in grad school at this point, but it's nice to see him continue to help out the team. Texas Tech really didn't respect him enough in this game, and it burned them. A couple of times they had Martin Zeno, theoretically his mark, release him and play a one-man zone in the middle of the floor to help out against the Lopezes. This didn't work out well. Stanford took advantage of Zeno's paradox (heh) with 3 chip-in baskets from Washington on offensive rebounds in the second half-- rebounds obtained because nobody was bothering to block Washington out.
Bad break for Cal, as they lose at the last second to Utah, a game they really could have used come tournament time.
Stanford has another light week upcoming, with the only remaining non-conference fixture against Fresno State. Cal hosts the Golden Bear Invitational, which I may actually be attending, and plays Long Beach State and then either Bucknell or North Dakota State. The Bears really need those for the W column. I think it's going to take 19 wins to get Cal into the Tourney, and if they lose one of those they may need a winning record in conference play to advance.
Also, some props to the Stanford women's team, which picked up a huge home win against Tennessee, snapping an 11-game losing streak to the Vols. I have to say, it sure would be nice if all the good men's teams actually played each other the way the good women's teams do. One can but dream, I suppose.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Bronco Brook
You know, sometimes when a player is out for an extended period of time, you forget how much better he makes a team.
Stanford 74, Santa Clara 48
Brook Lopez dominated this game every single minute he was in the ballgame. Rebounding. Threatening blocks. Hedging hard on high screens. Playing tough one-on-one D against one of the leading scorers in the country (John Bryant, now just under 20 points per game). But most of all, scoring practically at will. With his size and athleticism, he can be practically toeing the baseline with two defenders draped on his back, and he'll still be able to lean back and spin a layup in off the glass.
If any college hoops player could ever justify Keyshawn Johnson's mantra (just give me the damn ball), it's Brook Lopez. I actually felt kind of sorry for Robin, because he's been playing really well and suddenly is going to get fewer minutes and fewer shot opportunities.
If Brook plays this well all season, he's going to be a consensus top 5 draft pick. You can't turn down that kind of money. I hope that if he goes, Robin will stay for at least one more season, perhaps two more. He's already made big strides offensively, and I feel like getting out of his brother's shadow might have a salutary effect on his perceived draft status (which right now is not as high as it, by rights, should be). It's not like they'll be playing together in the NBA anyway, so there's no real reason why they would have to come out at the same time. And I think a Stanford team led by seniors in Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill, retaining Robin Lopez and working in raw-but-talented Josh Owens would be a force to be reckoned with come Tourney time.
Unrelated notes: A really positive sign in this game was that they completely shut down Santa Clara's perimeter offense. Despite running two bigs for much of the game, the Cardinal defenders were able to stick close to SC's guards and really limit their offense to tossing the ball in to Bryant and hoping he could do something with it. Incredibly, Santa Clara had only FIVE assists in the entire game.
Brook did get into a bit of foul trouble, picking up 4 in 19 minutes of play. A couple of them were kind of cheap, though. By and large he did a good job defensively.
Taj Finger had a nice little game. He's not usually much of a scorer, but he was 3/5 from the field and hit 4 free throws, and ripped down 11 rebounds for a double-double. He and Hill both have excellent rebounding instincts, and it shows (Hill had 8 boards along with 16 points).
Up next is a tough trip. The Cardinal head out to Dallas to play what is technically a neutral-site game against Texas Tech (and to be fair, Lubbock is a good several hundred miles away and there won't be a student section). Trips across multiple time zones are always tricky; Cal got tripped up by Kansas State 2 Sundays ago, and if the team had come out of the gate just a tiny bit quicker, they might well have won that one. Did jet lag play a role? Who knows, but Pac-10 teams always seem to have a tough time of it going east. At least Stanford's game will be at 1:30 Pacific time (3:30 local), a perfectly reasonable starting hour.
Stanford 74, Santa Clara 48
Brook Lopez dominated this game every single minute he was in the ballgame. Rebounding. Threatening blocks. Hedging hard on high screens. Playing tough one-on-one D against one of the leading scorers in the country (John Bryant, now just under 20 points per game). But most of all, scoring practically at will. With his size and athleticism, he can be practically toeing the baseline with two defenders draped on his back, and he'll still be able to lean back and spin a layup in off the glass.
If any college hoops player could ever justify Keyshawn Johnson's mantra (just give me the damn ball), it's Brook Lopez. I actually felt kind of sorry for Robin, because he's been playing really well and suddenly is going to get fewer minutes and fewer shot opportunities.
If Brook plays this well all season, he's going to be a consensus top 5 draft pick. You can't turn down that kind of money. I hope that if he goes, Robin will stay for at least one more season, perhaps two more. He's already made big strides offensively, and I feel like getting out of his brother's shadow might have a salutary effect on his perceived draft status (which right now is not as high as it, by rights, should be). It's not like they'll be playing together in the NBA anyway, so there's no real reason why they would have to come out at the same time. And I think a Stanford team led by seniors in Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill, retaining Robin Lopez and working in raw-but-talented Josh Owens would be a force to be reckoned with come Tourney time.
Unrelated notes: A really positive sign in this game was that they completely shut down Santa Clara's perimeter offense. Despite running two bigs for much of the game, the Cardinal defenders were able to stick close to SC's guards and really limit their offense to tossing the ball in to Bryant and hoping he could do something with it. Incredibly, Santa Clara had only FIVE assists in the entire game.
Brook did get into a bit of foul trouble, picking up 4 in 19 minutes of play. A couple of them were kind of cheap, though. By and large he did a good job defensively.
Taj Finger had a nice little game. He's not usually much of a scorer, but he was 3/5 from the field and hit 4 free throws, and ripped down 11 rebounds for a double-double. He and Hill both have excellent rebounding instincts, and it shows (Hill had 8 boards along with 16 points).
Up next is a tough trip. The Cardinal head out to Dallas to play what is technically a neutral-site game against Texas Tech (and to be fair, Lubbock is a good several hundred miles away and there won't be a student section). Trips across multiple time zones are always tricky; Cal got tripped up by Kansas State 2 Sundays ago, and if the team had come out of the gate just a tiny bit quicker, they might well have won that one. Did jet lag play a role? Who knows, but Pac-10 teams always seem to have a tough time of it going east. At least Stanford's game will be at 1:30 Pacific time (3:30 local), a perfectly reasonable starting hour.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Brook no delay!
Yes, that's right-- Brook Lopez is now eligible for play.
You expected maybe the "ZOMG 3xhibition tings of Koll3ge of Idahoe"?
Like it or not, this was the single most important news of the first half of the season. The guy is that good. And unlike his brother, his hair doesn't look like a beaver sat on his head. (Robin Lopez was named to the All-Bad-Hair NCAA tournament team last year. You can't make this stuff up, folks.)
(Actually, now that I think on it, that's exactly what ESPN did. Forget I just said that-- you CAN just make stuff up and many people will believe it. For further proof of this principle, please see any baseball game commented on by Joe Morgan.)
Put plainly, Brook Lopez has one of the best offensive games of any college big man. Maybe not quite on the level of Ohio State's Kosta Koufos, and I'd have to put Kevin Love in that category too, but quite strong nonetheless. He's got the ability to hit the midrange shot, which separates him from a lot of guys who are pretty much limited to layups and dunks. He's not great putting the ball on the floor, though (2 turnovers a game last season). If he could add the ability to move and back down defenders from further out than the fringes of the lane, he could become truly unstoppable.
Even more important, though, is his defensive presence. When the Cardinal throw out the double-Lopez lineup, it completely changes the game on the defensive end. It's awfully nice to know, as a perimeter guard, that even if you screw up you'll probably get bailed out by shot-blockers. It's virtually impossible to attempt a shot inside of 15 feet against that lineup without it being blocked or at least severely affected.
Report of actual performance coming Wednesday, when Stanford faces off against mid-major nemesis Santa Clara. It's been a pretty slow stretch for Cardinal Precepts, but we're getting into the swing of things for the stretch run.
You expected maybe the "ZOMG 3xhibition tings of Koll3ge of Idahoe"?
Like it or not, this was the single most important news of the first half of the season. The guy is that good. And unlike his brother, his hair doesn't look like a beaver sat on his head. (Robin Lopez was named to the All-Bad-Hair NCAA tournament team last year. You can't make this stuff up, folks.)
(Actually, now that I think on it, that's exactly what ESPN did. Forget I just said that-- you CAN just make stuff up and many people will believe it. For further proof of this principle, please see any baseball game commented on by Joe Morgan.)
Put plainly, Brook Lopez has one of the best offensive games of any college big man. Maybe not quite on the level of Ohio State's Kosta Koufos, and I'd have to put Kevin Love in that category too, but quite strong nonetheless. He's got the ability to hit the midrange shot, which separates him from a lot of guys who are pretty much limited to layups and dunks. He's not great putting the ball on the floor, though (2 turnovers a game last season). If he could add the ability to move and back down defenders from further out than the fringes of the lane, he could become truly unstoppable.
Even more important, though, is his defensive presence. When the Cardinal throw out the double-Lopez lineup, it completely changes the game on the defensive end. It's awfully nice to know, as a perimeter guard, that even if you screw up you'll probably get bailed out by shot-blockers. It's virtually impossible to attempt a shot inside of 15 feet against that lineup without it being blocked or at least severely affected.
Report of actual performance coming Wednesday, when Stanford faces off against mid-major nemesis Santa Clara. It's been a pretty slow stretch for Cardinal Precepts, but we're getting into the swing of things for the stretch run.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Surveying the Pac
We've reached roughly the quarter-season mark. I've looked at Cal and Stanford; how is the rest of the conference doing?
Arizona-- 5-2, SOS rank 8
Pomeroy rating: 26
(Just a note about the above: SOS is measured by rank among the 341 Division I programs. Pomeroy rating was developed by Ken Pomeroy, now of basketballprospectus.com, to measure the actual performance of basketball teams against their opponents in a better manner than the RPI. It's a pretty predictive ranking scheme.)
Lute Olsen always has his teams play particularly tough non-conference schedules. I've got to be honest with you-- I don't understand it with this team. The team at present has one proven scorer in Chase Budinger, who is (despite my earlier criticism of him vis a vis Ryan Anderson) pretty awesome, and a whole lot of question marks elsewhere. Jerryd Bayless is producing quite well for a freshman, but this is not a strong Olsen squad.
Add in the fact that Olsen is taking the season off, and you've got a recipe for another potential meltdown in the latter half of the season. He is, apparently, in the midst of a somewhat messy divorce. It's to his credit that he realized he couldn't concentrate on coaching and turned the reins over to Kevin McHale. But no matter who's coaching, the strain of numerous high-intensity games is, I think, going to wear the team down. They've still got games at Illinois, at UNLV (never an easy road trip), and at Memphis. It's hard to see this team going better than 9-4 in nonconference play, which likely means they'll need a .500 Pac-10 mark to make the Tourney.
Arizona State-- 5-2, SOS 156
Pomeroy Rating: 50
Herb Sendek has definitely upped the recruiting ante in the Desert, as evidenced by the fact that his team's leading scorer and rebounder is a freshman. Unfortunately, said freshman (James Harden) is a guard. Guards leading your team in rebounding is a Bad Thing. This team has a core of solid talent, and has held its own to this point, managing two D-I wins at the Maui Invitational, but losing by 15 to Nebraska does not fill me with confidence for this team's future. Right now Pomeroy has them on the Tourney bubble, but without better scoring and rebounding performances, they're not going to win enough games in-conference.
Oregon-- 6-1, SOS 30
Pomeroy Rating: 44
I find it odd that Oregon's schedule is ranked as highly as it is. Outside of Kansas State (narrow win) and St. Mary's (lost rather badly), there's no one of any consequence on there. This is a veteran team, but also one with severe depth and height problems. The team has one player with significant minutes over 6-6, and only 7 guys in the regular rotation. Call me a skeptic, but I just can't see where the #19 AP rank is coming from. The Pac-10 this year is crammed full of big men, and I cannot see what Oregon will be able to do against DeVon Harden and his ilk. They should enter Pac-10 play at 10-2, but I think this team will struggle to post a .500 conference record and ultimately miss the NCAA tournament.
Oregon State-- 4-3, SOS 321
Pomeroy Rating: 160
Let's face it-- this is a bad team. When you lose to Alaska-Fairbanks, you've got some serious issues. I was under the impression that O-State had brought in a decent recruiting class, but so far it hasn't really showed. The only players who should inspire fear in any opponent are Seth Tarver and Marcel Jones. In this conference, O-State is going to be lucky to win 4 games. It would take little short of a miracle for this group to even obtain an NIT bid.
UCLA-- 8-1, SOS 11
Pomeroy Rating: 3
It's a measure of how reactive and stupid the polls are that UCLA dropped 7 spots for losing to a pretty good Texas team by 2 points. Ignore them. The committee will, too. This is a Bruins squad which has won a bunch of games against tough opponents despite serious injury problems. The frontline group-- Collison, Westbrook, Shipp, Mbah a Moute (is that not the most awesome name in sports?) and Kevin Love-- is as good as any in the country. This team doesn't have the backcourt depth of some of Howland's past teams, but that situation will improve once Michael Roll returns from injury.
It's pretty hard for me not to think that UCLA is Final Four-bound again. The only thing that might crimp those plans is if the team loses enough conference games to drop to a #3 seed or so.
USC-- 6-3, SOS 16
Pomeroy Rating: 21
Does Taj Gibson have mono or something? What happened to the dominant big man we saw in last year's NCAA tournament? He had zero points when I turned on last week's game against Kansas, at about the 6-minutes-to-go mark. I'm a big fan of his, despite his playing for USC (easily my least-liked team in the conference) and the lassitude I'm seeing is a little disturbing.
Then again, maybe it's just a natural result of playing on the same team as OJ Mayo. Mayo has really damaged USC's chances with his ball-hogging ways thus far. He's shot the ball 157 times and scored 160 points on those shots. When you consider that he's also turning the ball over 4 times a game, you realize that the lion's share of this team's offense is going through a guy who's actually not all that good. Luckily for USC fans, he'll be gone soon.
I really dislike this new "one year rule" which encourages all of these ringers to show up on campus, go to class for a semester, and then bug out for the NBA. For one thing, it creates way too much uncertainty for coaches as to what their rosters are actually going to look like. For another, it's hard for fans to keep up with. For a third, it's a serious waste of classroom resources on guys who have no interest in or desire to attend college. And for a fourth, it makes the rich richer-- virtually all of these guys are going to top programs, not Northwestern State.
Make the rule the same as in baseball or football (3 year commitment) and I'd be a bit happier with it. I'm really not convinced the rule is even morally right or legally permissible, though. If the players want to play in the NBA, and the teams want them to play in the NBA, what exactly is the justification for preventing them?
Washington-- 4-3, SOS 179
Pomeroy Rating: 129
Here's a shocker for ya: losing Brandon Roy really hurt this team last year. He's not coming back, and it seems like you could say the same about the program. The Huskies made it to New York in the Preseason NIT, but got thumped twice there, and subsequently endured another thrashing at the hands of Oklahoma State in the Big 12-Pac 10 Series. The Huskies are hugely dependent on undersized big Jon Brockman, who is a talented guy but really not on the level of a Brook Lopez or a Kevin Love. Having an undersized, shoot-first point guard who's not a great ball-handler just adds to the problems. Washington has an outside shot at an NIT bid, but that's about all they can realistically hope for.
Washington State-- 8-0, SOS 137
Pomeroy Rating: 12
I don't know of a recent example of a college team enjoying this much consistent success without a single NBA talent on the roster. OK, OK, Kyle Weaver might get a look (6-6 shooting guards are a nice thing), but "last ten picks to possibly undrafted" doesn't really count here. The rest of the team consists of: a short Hawaiian point guard (Derrick Low), a guy whose shot looks like it came straight out of some highlight reel from the 1930s (Rochestie), a center who looks like he just ate Sheboygan and isn't sorry (Aron Baynes), and a guy who looks kind of like what Oakland A's pitcher Dan Haren would look like if you grew both him and his hair out ten inches (Robbie Cowgill).
Kudos to Tony Bennett for turning this ragged bunch of dudes into a formidable defensive menace. The combination of slow tempo and great halfcourt defense means Wazoo has a pretty fair shot at allowing fewer points per game than any other team in Division I. Having one aspect of your game be that good really gives you a chance against any opponent, even the UCLAs of the world.
Arizona-- 5-2, SOS rank 8
Pomeroy rating: 26
(Just a note about the above: SOS is measured by rank among the 341 Division I programs. Pomeroy rating was developed by Ken Pomeroy, now of basketballprospectus.com, to measure the actual performance of basketball teams against their opponents in a better manner than the RPI. It's a pretty predictive ranking scheme.)
Lute Olsen always has his teams play particularly tough non-conference schedules. I've got to be honest with you-- I don't understand it with this team. The team at present has one proven scorer in Chase Budinger, who is (despite my earlier criticism of him vis a vis Ryan Anderson) pretty awesome, and a whole lot of question marks elsewhere. Jerryd Bayless is producing quite well for a freshman, but this is not a strong Olsen squad.
Add in the fact that Olsen is taking the season off, and you've got a recipe for another potential meltdown in the latter half of the season. He is, apparently, in the midst of a somewhat messy divorce. It's to his credit that he realized he couldn't concentrate on coaching and turned the reins over to Kevin McHale. But no matter who's coaching, the strain of numerous high-intensity games is, I think, going to wear the team down. They've still got games at Illinois, at UNLV (never an easy road trip), and at Memphis. It's hard to see this team going better than 9-4 in nonconference play, which likely means they'll need a .500 Pac-10 mark to make the Tourney.
Arizona State-- 5-2, SOS 156
Pomeroy Rating: 50
Herb Sendek has definitely upped the recruiting ante in the Desert, as evidenced by the fact that his team's leading scorer and rebounder is a freshman. Unfortunately, said freshman (James Harden) is a guard. Guards leading your team in rebounding is a Bad Thing. This team has a core of solid talent, and has held its own to this point, managing two D-I wins at the Maui Invitational, but losing by 15 to Nebraska does not fill me with confidence for this team's future. Right now Pomeroy has them on the Tourney bubble, but without better scoring and rebounding performances, they're not going to win enough games in-conference.
Oregon-- 6-1, SOS 30
Pomeroy Rating: 44
I find it odd that Oregon's schedule is ranked as highly as it is. Outside of Kansas State (narrow win) and St. Mary's (lost rather badly), there's no one of any consequence on there. This is a veteran team, but also one with severe depth and height problems. The team has one player with significant minutes over 6-6, and only 7 guys in the regular rotation. Call me a skeptic, but I just can't see where the #19 AP rank is coming from. The Pac-10 this year is crammed full of big men, and I cannot see what Oregon will be able to do against DeVon Harden and his ilk. They should enter Pac-10 play at 10-2, but I think this team will struggle to post a .500 conference record and ultimately miss the NCAA tournament.
Oregon State-- 4-3, SOS 321
Pomeroy Rating: 160
Let's face it-- this is a bad team. When you lose to Alaska-Fairbanks, you've got some serious issues. I was under the impression that O-State had brought in a decent recruiting class, but so far it hasn't really showed. The only players who should inspire fear in any opponent are Seth Tarver and Marcel Jones. In this conference, O-State is going to be lucky to win 4 games. It would take little short of a miracle for this group to even obtain an NIT bid.
UCLA-- 8-1, SOS 11
Pomeroy Rating: 3
It's a measure of how reactive and stupid the polls are that UCLA dropped 7 spots for losing to a pretty good Texas team by 2 points. Ignore them. The committee will, too. This is a Bruins squad which has won a bunch of games against tough opponents despite serious injury problems. The frontline group-- Collison, Westbrook, Shipp, Mbah a Moute (is that not the most awesome name in sports?) and Kevin Love-- is as good as any in the country. This team doesn't have the backcourt depth of some of Howland's past teams, but that situation will improve once Michael Roll returns from injury.
It's pretty hard for me not to think that UCLA is Final Four-bound again. The only thing that might crimp those plans is if the team loses enough conference games to drop to a #3 seed or so.
USC-- 6-3, SOS 16
Pomeroy Rating: 21
Does Taj Gibson have mono or something? What happened to the dominant big man we saw in last year's NCAA tournament? He had zero points when I turned on last week's game against Kansas, at about the 6-minutes-to-go mark. I'm a big fan of his, despite his playing for USC (easily my least-liked team in the conference) and the lassitude I'm seeing is a little disturbing.
Then again, maybe it's just a natural result of playing on the same team as OJ Mayo. Mayo has really damaged USC's chances with his ball-hogging ways thus far. He's shot the ball 157 times and scored 160 points on those shots. When you consider that he's also turning the ball over 4 times a game, you realize that the lion's share of this team's offense is going through a guy who's actually not all that good. Luckily for USC fans, he'll be gone soon.
I really dislike this new "one year rule" which encourages all of these ringers to show up on campus, go to class for a semester, and then bug out for the NBA. For one thing, it creates way too much uncertainty for coaches as to what their rosters are actually going to look like. For another, it's hard for fans to keep up with. For a third, it's a serious waste of classroom resources on guys who have no interest in or desire to attend college. And for a fourth, it makes the rich richer-- virtually all of these guys are going to top programs, not Northwestern State.
Make the rule the same as in baseball or football (3 year commitment) and I'd be a bit happier with it. I'm really not convinced the rule is even morally right or legally permissible, though. If the players want to play in the NBA, and the teams want them to play in the NBA, what exactly is the justification for preventing them?
Washington-- 4-3, SOS 179
Pomeroy Rating: 129
Here's a shocker for ya: losing Brandon Roy really hurt this team last year. He's not coming back, and it seems like you could say the same about the program. The Huskies made it to New York in the Preseason NIT, but got thumped twice there, and subsequently endured another thrashing at the hands of Oklahoma State in the Big 12-Pac 10 Series. The Huskies are hugely dependent on undersized big Jon Brockman, who is a talented guy but really not on the level of a Brook Lopez or a Kevin Love. Having an undersized, shoot-first point guard who's not a great ball-handler just adds to the problems. Washington has an outside shot at an NIT bid, but that's about all they can realistically hope for.
Washington State-- 8-0, SOS 137
Pomeroy Rating: 12
I don't know of a recent example of a college team enjoying this much consistent success without a single NBA talent on the roster. OK, OK, Kyle Weaver might get a look (6-6 shooting guards are a nice thing), but "last ten picks to possibly undrafted" doesn't really count here. The rest of the team consists of: a short Hawaiian point guard (Derrick Low), a guy whose shot looks like it came straight out of some highlight reel from the 1930s (Rochestie), a center who looks like he just ate Sheboygan and isn't sorry (Aron Baynes), and a guy who looks kind of like what Oakland A's pitcher Dan Haren would look like if you grew both him and his hair out ten inches (Robbie Cowgill).
Kudos to Tony Bennett for turning this ragged bunch of dudes into a formidable defensive menace. The combination of slow tempo and great halfcourt defense means Wazoo has a pretty fair shot at allowing fewer points per game than any other team in Division I. Having one aspect of your game be that good really gives you a chance against any opponent, even the UCLAs of the world.
Sunday, December 2, 2007
Cal thoughts
Stanford 67, Colorado 43
Nice dominant road win for the Red. Again, I haven't got a lot to say here, so more thoughts on Cal.
I did get a chance to watch last night's game against Missouri, and while it wasn't a classic finish, I have to say it was an exceptionally well-played game. It started out at a breakneck pace, and it looked like Cal might get run out of the building the way Stanford was in last year's NCAA tournament. But somehow they got things under control. Mizzou basically lost their shooting touch midway through the second half and never got it back, allowing Cal to roar from 13 points back to finish 12 points ahead and win going away.
In no particular order:
I wasn't real impressed with any of the individual Missouri players except for their guard Matt Lawrence, who swished something like 5 consecutive 3-pointers in the first half and clearly is a man who can't be left unguarded on the perimeter. They seem like a team that will give opponents fits and probably steal some wins over better teams, however. Lots of pressing, trapping and lunging for balls. It's a wild ride. Ultimately I think they'll lack the talent in a pretty potent Big 12 to make the NCAA tournament.
Patrick Christopher is an incredible finisher around the rim for a guard. He throws up some crazy layup attempt, and somehow it banks in off the glass and the front of the rim. He looks like the dynamic scoring guard that Cal's recent teams have mostly lacked (with apologies to Ayinde Ubaka, who was a little too unselfish to really fill this role).
Ryan Anderson-- quietest double-double I've seen in a while? I don't know. This was not a particularly good game for him, but the man gets his numbers come hell or high water. 15 points, 11 rebounds.
DeVon Hardin is an NBA player. He's looking like a finished product on the offensive end, and he's a rebounding machine. Probably the best rebounder in the conference. Might be the highest-picked college senior in the NBA draft, which is always something of an accomplishment. (Although Roy Hibbert might beat him out strictly on account of height.) He was rockin' the high socks last night, which was kind of cool. Looked like a young Elgin Baylor.
Jerome Randle still has work to do on his passing. Way too many semi-forced errors (yeah, the defense made a steal, but they wouldn't have been able to steal it if you hadn't thrown it there... that kind of thing). He's the same age and the same player type (quick little firebrand) as Tajuan Porter, but he doesn't have Porter's poise. (Or ability to throw up a fallaway 3-pointer from 30 feet with 3 seconds on the shot clock and bank it in off the ceiling of the arena. At least, that's what it seems like Porter is doing.)
Nikola Knezevic was a nice stabilizing influence. Against halfcourt defenses, I could see going with a more prominent scorer and having Randle run the point, but right now it looks like the clear best Cal lineup is:
PG: Knezevic
SG: Randle
SF: Christopher
PF: Anderson
C: Hardin
This may change once Jamal Boykin and Theo Robertson become eligible and/or healthy. For tonight's game, however, it's clear that Cal got the best results from this look. Eric Viernesal is simply in a catastrophic offensive funk, to the point that he's not even looking to shoot the ball anymore.
Up next for Stanford: exhibition against College of Idaho. Trent Johnson, if Peter Prowitt and Josh Owens aren't in the starting lineup, we have some things to discuss. I'm not sure if redshirt players are allowed to play in exhibitions, but if they are, Will Paul and Da'veed Dildy had better be in there as well.
In the meantime, we'll have an additional televised Cal game to chew over, as they play at Kansas State next Sunday. They'll be a substantial dog, but could really start laying the framework for a tourney bid with a win in Manhattan.
Nice dominant road win for the Red. Again, I haven't got a lot to say here, so more thoughts on Cal.
I did get a chance to watch last night's game against Missouri, and while it wasn't a classic finish, I have to say it was an exceptionally well-played game. It started out at a breakneck pace, and it looked like Cal might get run out of the building the way Stanford was in last year's NCAA tournament. But somehow they got things under control. Mizzou basically lost their shooting touch midway through the second half and never got it back, allowing Cal to roar from 13 points back to finish 12 points ahead and win going away.
In no particular order:
I wasn't real impressed with any of the individual Missouri players except for their guard Matt Lawrence, who swished something like 5 consecutive 3-pointers in the first half and clearly is a man who can't be left unguarded on the perimeter. They seem like a team that will give opponents fits and probably steal some wins over better teams, however. Lots of pressing, trapping and lunging for balls. It's a wild ride. Ultimately I think they'll lack the talent in a pretty potent Big 12 to make the NCAA tournament.
Patrick Christopher is an incredible finisher around the rim for a guard. He throws up some crazy layup attempt, and somehow it banks in off the glass and the front of the rim. He looks like the dynamic scoring guard that Cal's recent teams have mostly lacked (with apologies to Ayinde Ubaka, who was a little too unselfish to really fill this role).
Ryan Anderson-- quietest double-double I've seen in a while? I don't know. This was not a particularly good game for him, but the man gets his numbers come hell or high water. 15 points, 11 rebounds.
DeVon Hardin is an NBA player. He's looking like a finished product on the offensive end, and he's a rebounding machine. Probably the best rebounder in the conference. Might be the highest-picked college senior in the NBA draft, which is always something of an accomplishment. (Although Roy Hibbert might beat him out strictly on account of height.) He was rockin' the high socks last night, which was kind of cool. Looked like a young Elgin Baylor.
Jerome Randle still has work to do on his passing. Way too many semi-forced errors (yeah, the defense made a steal, but they wouldn't have been able to steal it if you hadn't thrown it there... that kind of thing). He's the same age and the same player type (quick little firebrand) as Tajuan Porter, but he doesn't have Porter's poise. (Or ability to throw up a fallaway 3-pointer from 30 feet with 3 seconds on the shot clock and bank it in off the ceiling of the arena. At least, that's what it seems like Porter is doing.)
Nikola Knezevic was a nice stabilizing influence. Against halfcourt defenses, I could see going with a more prominent scorer and having Randle run the point, but right now it looks like the clear best Cal lineup is:
PG: Knezevic
SG: Randle
SF: Christopher
PF: Anderson
C: Hardin
This may change once Jamal Boykin and Theo Robertson become eligible and/or healthy. For tonight's game, however, it's clear that Cal got the best results from this look. Eric Viernesal is simply in a catastrophic offensive funk, to the point that he's not even looking to shoot the ball anymore.
Up next for Stanford: exhibition against College of Idaho. Trent Johnson, if Peter Prowitt and Josh Owens aren't in the starting lineup, we have some things to discuss. I'm not sure if redshirt players are allowed to play in exhibitions, but if they are, Will Paul and Da'veed Dildy had better be in there as well.
In the meantime, we'll have an additional televised Cal game to chew over, as they play at Kansas State next Sunday. They'll be a substantial dog, but could really start laying the framework for a tourney bid with a win in Manhattan.
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