Saturday, January 5, 2008

In rugby action today...

Stanford defeats USC, 52-46.

This was an old-school game. And by old-school, I mean it was reminiscent of the ancient Maya ball game, in which the players attempted to knock the ball through a vertical hoop (so it had to go through sideways) without using their hands to propel it. The only differences I could see: a. There was slightly more scoring in this game, and b. the losing team was not subsequently "honored" by participating in a blood sacrifice to the gods-- as the victims. Maybe they should have been.

Let's go through the ugliness:

The two teams had a combined assist to turnover ratio of 15:43.

ONE starter had a shooting percentage over 50%. (Taj Gibson, to be exact.)

Stanford shot 14 more times than USC, and made the same number of shots. And USC was not exactly lighting it up either.

Stanford scored 38 points on 63 shots. That's an effective field goal percentage of .302.

As far as I can make out, each team possessed the ball 66 times. USC therefore managed to score an average of .70 points per possession. Just for reference, an average NCAA team might score 1 point per possession. So USC was roughly 30% worse than an average team in this game; Stanford wasn't far behind, at .79 points per possession.

You had to watch this game to see how bad it was. Time and time again, each team would have open looks and simply whiff. Stanford was clearly the worse offender here. They utterly dominated the offensive glass-- pulling down fully half of the rebounds at that end of the floor, while giving up just 8 offensive boards to USC in 34 chances-- and simply could not convert those offensive boards into points. Apparently making point-blank layups was too easy, or something.

USC's problem was less the "lid on the basket" issue and more the "can't sink a shot no matter how open I am" one. SC's guys could have, on several occasions, taken set shots from 3-point range and had plenty of time to load beforehand, and they still clanked off the side of the rim. I can't tell if it was an off night or simply the wrong people taking the shots.

I think both teams would be well served to throw the videotape of this game in the trash bin. They'd be even better served to erase it from the stat sheets.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

C'est la UCLA

UCLA 76, Stanford 67

Well, it was a nice hope. UCLA was simply too efficient offensively in the second half. Frankly, they were also lucky on their shots; it seemed like they couldn't miss sometimes, and they got a couple of really random offensive rebounds that seemed to deflate Stanford defensively. I felt like the zone wasn't used enough by the Cardinal. Then again, maybe Trent Johnson felt like UCLA was shooting the ball so well from the outside that he couldn't afford to try it for an extended stretch.

Brook Lopez awoke from the dead with 11 points offensively in the second half, but this was still a deeply disappointing game for him. Stanford missed 6 points on whiffed slams and point-blank layups while UCLA was running their lead to 12 points, and that really cost them badly. The crowd was never able to fully get into the flow (and to be fair, with the school still on winter break, it was a bit sparser than usual).

Cal is thumping USC as I write this, so it's not all bad news for the Bay Area today. One non-basketball item to note: Oakland right fielder Nick Swisher was traded today for three minor leaguers. Baseball season is going to be long and, frankly, crummy next year. Thank God the Olympics will intervene when things really start getting ugly. I understand why this move was made-- and even approve of it on a strategic level-- but they are not going to be a good team next season at all. It's all about 2010 for Oaktown right now.

Halftime

Stanford down by a single point.

The guys need to play within themselves a little more. A couple of truly pointless turnovers on fast breaks where there was nothing available. There are open shots available in the halfcourt set. There's no reason to rush things.

Nice penetration work by the Stanford guards. This seems to be a real weakness of UCLA's D, which surprises me.

UCLA is totally shutting down Brook Lopez; hopefully he'll adjust and have a monster second half.

Stanford actually outplayed UCLA, I think, but they stayed in it with an unrealistic 3-pointer percentage. Granted, they had a bunch of open looks, but nobody is that hot all the time.

Lawrence Hill is getting some openings; they need to give him the ball despite his struggles in prior games. We know he's got the talent.

That's all for now. I'll wrap up in an hour or so.

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Obligatory Post

I would love to say something interesting here, but that would require having something interesting to say.

Stanford 55, Fresno State 48

I will say this about this game-- Stanford's defense was stifling. Fresno State netted only .83 points per shot, which is abysmal. Worse yet, Fresno turned the ball over 18 times, with only 6 assists. Most of the baskets they did manage were off of Kevin Bell penetrating into the lane, and even he was rather ineffectual, managing a mere 7 for 18 with 2 free throws. Like Texas Tech, Fresno was reduced to ineffectual lunges and runners in a desperate attempt to generate some offense.

That being said, Stanford:

a. turned the ball over 14 times themselves,
b. got all of three points from the bench, all of them on a single Taj Finger shot (weird in and of itself-- since when does he shoot threes?)
c. got outrebounded by a far smaller team, and
d. punctuated the game with such black-comedic highlights as Fred Washington and Brook Lopez attempting threes and Lawrence Hill shooting 2 for 12. He's officially in a slump at this point, as he whiffed on several wide-open threes that he normally buries.

There was basically one offensive highlight in this game, and it was Anthony Goods peeling off a screen and lunging to the hoop for a perfect slam dunk-- around a help defender. Very nice, but it hardly triggered a run-- Fresno promptly inbounded and hit a 3-pointer, which last time I checked is worth more points than a dunk.

In other news, Cal football's nightmarish season continues its denouement, with several players benched for at least the start of tomorrow's Armed Forces Bowl. Perhaps mercifully, I will be spared the sight of the game by work, as one of the worst football seasons (and sports years, period) in local history finally sputters to its gloomy conclusion. Let's hope for a happier 2008.

Note: the above was all written several days ago, but has been sitting on my computer since then. This is because I am an idiot who forgets about these things.

Might as well go straight on to the keys for Stanford to pull the upset in tonight's game:

1. Defense: The overriding priority is restraining UCLA's offense. They are not a super-powered offensive force. Most of the scoring comes from the guards-- Westbrook, Collison and Shipp. If Stanford can swat away their attempts at penetration and cling close enough to stop them from shooting 3s, I think UCLA will have trouble winning. Target: Less than one point per shot.

2. Lawrence Hill: Guy's been in a slump lately. The Cardinal desperately needs him to break out of it. He's going to have open looks from 3 and needs to knock them down. Target: 12 points and 6 rebounds.

3. Turnovers: We know there's going to be a bunch of them for Stanford. UCLA plays aggressive, ball-hawking, borderline illegal defense. The Cardinal have to limit the number of turnovers, particularly steals (which are much more damaging than other turnovers because they often lead to easy baskets on run-outs). Otherwise they simply won't be able to match UCLA in possessions. Target: 12 turnovers, 4 steals.

4. Non-Lopez/Goods scoring: Someone else is going to need to step up and score, whether it be Fred Washington with penetration or Drew Shiller (currently sitting at a ludicrous 1.9 points per shot-- he needs to take more of them) bombing from the outside. UCLA's own stodgy white jump-shooter, Michael Roll, is doubtful for the game with an injury, so the Cardinal definitely have an edge here. Target: At least one player besides Brook, Goods and Hill with 10 points.

We shall see. It's awfully tough to predict anyone to beat UCLA at this point, but I think Stanford is certainly at least capable of pulling it off.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Running rapidly out of "Brook" jokes

At the rate we're going, I'm going to have to start re-using them by mid-January. Could be a long season for anyone who actually cares about quality writing.

Then again, if that's you, why are you reading this in the first place?

Stanford 62, Texas Tech 61

Ladies and gentlemen, your consensus Pac-10 Player of the Week.

Tight-fought battle down to the wire. The single overriding factor in this game-- particularly in the second half-- was that Stanford had a way to generate easy points-- throw the ball in to Brook Lopez-- and Texas Tech had none. Trent Johnson put in a zone in the second half which completely stuffed Tech's offense. And again, Brook was the key to that-- because despite being almost 7 feet, he's agile enough to guard one of the corners of the zone very well. Meanwhile Robin Lopez was prowling the lane, freed by the zone look to come over the top of any guard penetration and simply swat the ball away. It did result in Tech getting a couple of weak offensive boards-- and several extremely long possessions, as Tech kept running the shot clock way down trying to find an open shot; at one point the ball was in Stanford's end for well over a minute straight-- but the tradeoff was more than worth it.

Offensively, this was really a forgettable performance by the Farm Team. Until Mitch Johnson hit on a wide-open 3 midway through the second half, the team didn't have a long-range basket. Anthony Goods pump-faked on what looked (to my amateur eye) to have been a couple of open looks from the corners, and generally settled for midrange jumpers instead. Lawrence Hill had what can only be described as an off game. At the end of the game, he wasn't even on the floor, as Taj Finger took over the interior with Fred Washington, Goods and Johnson on the perimeter.

The inclusion of Washington in the above list is of some note. Washington actually had minor surgery a few weeks back, but managed through the combination of a light schedule and a pretty quick recovery to miss only one game-- and apparently he could have played in that one, too, but was held out for precautionary reasons.

Washington seems like he's about 80 years old at this point, but he's actually only in his 5th season. He's the last remaining Cardinal who actually played for Mike Montgomery (although Taj Finger and Peter Prowitt were recruited by him), having gotten a medical hardship waiver for the '05-06 season. I'm pretty sure he's in grad school at this point, but it's nice to see him continue to help out the team. Texas Tech really didn't respect him enough in this game, and it burned them. A couple of times they had Martin Zeno, theoretically his mark, release him and play a one-man zone in the middle of the floor to help out against the Lopezes. This didn't work out well. Stanford took advantage of Zeno's paradox (heh) with 3 chip-in baskets from Washington on offensive rebounds in the second half-- rebounds obtained because nobody was bothering to block Washington out.

Bad break for Cal, as they lose at the last second to Utah, a game they really could have used come tournament time.

Stanford has another light week upcoming, with the only remaining non-conference fixture against Fresno State. Cal hosts the Golden Bear Invitational, which I may actually be attending, and plays Long Beach State and then either Bucknell or North Dakota State. The Bears really need those for the W column. I think it's going to take 19 wins to get Cal into the Tourney, and if they lose one of those they may need a winning record in conference play to advance.

Also, some props to the Stanford women's team, which picked up a huge home win against Tennessee, snapping an 11-game losing streak to the Vols. I have to say, it sure would be nice if all the good men's teams actually played each other the way the good women's teams do. One can but dream, I suppose.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Bronco Brook

You know, sometimes when a player is out for an extended period of time, you forget how much better he makes a team.

Stanford 74, Santa Clara 48

Brook Lopez dominated this game every single minute he was in the ballgame. Rebounding. Threatening blocks. Hedging hard on high screens. Playing tough one-on-one D against one of the leading scorers in the country (John Bryant, now just under 20 points per game). But most of all, scoring practically at will. With his size and athleticism, he can be practically toeing the baseline with two defenders draped on his back, and he'll still be able to lean back and spin a layup in off the glass.

If any college hoops player could ever justify Keyshawn Johnson's mantra (just give me the damn ball), it's Brook Lopez. I actually felt kind of sorry for Robin, because he's been playing really well and suddenly is going to get fewer minutes and fewer shot opportunities.

If Brook plays this well all season, he's going to be a consensus top 5 draft pick. You can't turn down that kind of money. I hope that if he goes, Robin will stay for at least one more season, perhaps two more. He's already made big strides offensively, and I feel like getting out of his brother's shadow might have a salutary effect on his perceived draft status (which right now is not as high as it, by rights, should be). It's not like they'll be playing together in the NBA anyway, so there's no real reason why they would have to come out at the same time. And I think a Stanford team led by seniors in Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill, retaining Robin Lopez and working in raw-but-talented Josh Owens would be a force to be reckoned with come Tourney time.

Unrelated notes: A really positive sign in this game was that they completely shut down Santa Clara's perimeter offense. Despite running two bigs for much of the game, the Cardinal defenders were able to stick close to SC's guards and really limit their offense to tossing the ball in to Bryant and hoping he could do something with it. Incredibly, Santa Clara had only FIVE assists in the entire game.

Brook did get into a bit of foul trouble, picking up 4 in 19 minutes of play. A couple of them were kind of cheap, though. By and large he did a good job defensively.

Taj Finger had a nice little game. He's not usually much of a scorer, but he was 3/5 from the field and hit 4 free throws, and ripped down 11 rebounds for a double-double. He and Hill both have excellent rebounding instincts, and it shows (Hill had 8 boards along with 16 points).

Up next is a tough trip. The Cardinal head out to Dallas to play what is technically a neutral-site game against Texas Tech (and to be fair, Lubbock is a good several hundred miles away and there won't be a student section). Trips across multiple time zones are always tricky; Cal got tripped up by Kansas State 2 Sundays ago, and if the team had come out of the gate just a tiny bit quicker, they might well have won that one. Did jet lag play a role? Who knows, but Pac-10 teams always seem to have a tough time of it going east. At least Stanford's game will be at 1:30 Pacific time (3:30 local), a perfectly reasonable starting hour.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Brook no delay!

Yes, that's right-- Brook Lopez is now eligible for play.

You expected maybe the "ZOMG 3xhibition tings of Koll3ge of Idahoe"?

Like it or not, this was the single most important news of the first half of the season. The guy is that good. And unlike his brother, his hair doesn't look like a beaver sat on his head. (Robin Lopez was named to the All-Bad-Hair NCAA tournament team last year. You can't make this stuff up, folks.)

(Actually, now that I think on it, that's exactly what ESPN did. Forget I just said that-- you CAN just make stuff up and many people will believe it. For further proof of this principle, please see any baseball game commented on by Joe Morgan.)

Put plainly, Brook Lopez has one of the best offensive games of any college big man. Maybe not quite on the level of Ohio State's Kosta Koufos, and I'd have to put Kevin Love in that category too, but quite strong nonetheless. He's got the ability to hit the midrange shot, which separates him from a lot of guys who are pretty much limited to layups and dunks. He's not great putting the ball on the floor, though (2 turnovers a game last season). If he could add the ability to move and back down defenders from further out than the fringes of the lane, he could become truly unstoppable.

Even more important, though, is his defensive presence. When the Cardinal throw out the double-Lopez lineup, it completely changes the game on the defensive end. It's awfully nice to know, as a perimeter guard, that even if you screw up you'll probably get bailed out by shot-blockers. It's virtually impossible to attempt a shot inside of 15 feet against that lineup without it being blocked or at least severely affected.

Report of actual performance coming Wednesday, when Stanford faces off against mid-major nemesis Santa Clara. It's been a pretty slow stretch for Cardinal Precepts, but we're getting into the swing of things for the stretch run.